Thursday, April 27, 2006

Does Jim Cramer (CNBC) make money for his followers?

I was intrigued by Cramer's popularity as a CNBC entertainer (comedian) but more so by the number of believers that followed his recommendations. I was also impressed that the TV network had given him 3 one hour time slots per day and frequent exposure between his shows. I decided to determine if I was missing something by not being impressed with many of his recommendations. With easy access to computer data storage and personal watch lists I decided to use my statistical background to evaluate his effectiveness. The basic summary of the methadology was to track 60 of his strongest buy recommendations daily for 2 months. For comparison to his buy recommendations I used 20 stocks in my portfolio and favorites , the Dow and NASDAQ indexes. The first obvious observation, without crunching #s, was that he usually moved the stock prices for the first moments and short periods. Then in less than a week it became obvious the early stock spurts often faded quickly in the matter of days or weeks. To his credit some of his quality buy recommendations had continued to have good gains. It all seemed clear to me so I was tempted to give up the statistical analysis but decided that my effort was already expended thus I let the experiment run the total planned 2 months. Also the methodology was designed to get a statistically valid answer which meant more data and time even if the performance of the Cramer recommendations were not impressive? The results of the 2 months comparison was that the preliminary conclusion was valid. The DOW, NSDAQ & my group outperformed Cramer's buy picks by a significant amount of about 4 to 5 % over the 2 month period. There were about 1 in 8 or 10 of Cramer' picks that did well but not enough to cause his average to be the best of the four groups. It is fair to add that Cramer does not always say to buy immediately nor does he review his buy selections to offer advice on when to sell. Not having any guidance as when "to fold em" is a fault as selling is the most important decision. The valid conclusion based on statistical significance testing is that Cramer does not help his followers to beat the market on the average. Also his guidance has been poor on the direction of the overall market and especially his vacillating on the energy sectors has been a loser. There are some insights to Cramer's approach that would clarify any potential interest in his lack of results that might be worthy of further blogging. My opinions are also the consensus of many other experienced investors as Cramer has many disbelievers. I make no disclaimers as the numbers speak for themselves. Since the show must go on the Cramer hype will continue as many listeners yell as much as Cramer. He is a pro !!

1 Comments:

Blogger Pete said...

What is your opinion of the Cramer experience? Thanks

12:14 PM  

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