From a message board- not a world class media but a view from the other side ( of what?)- Hmmm?

American Economic Collapse Not Far Away


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Even More Reasons Why the US Economy Will Collapse:
#21. Five years of drought and Global Warming has caused many farmers in the American mid-west to declare bankrupty. The US is facing a possible food shortage if current drought trends continue. People aren't building enough green houses to grow food.

#22. Rising costs of airplane flights are stifling business trips by companies seeking to do business.

#23. Global Warming is causing record hurricanes, tropical storms, floods and ecological disasters are destroying homes & businesses in the South-Eastern United States. The storms also prevent oil rigs from drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, causing an oil shortage.

#24. We're already in a recession. A depression is not far away.

#25. The White House is being complacent about the US economy and isn't doing a thing to prevent a depression.

According to chief economists, the American economy is so close to collapse its getting scary. But don't take my word for it, see what people in authority have been saying about the US economy:
"The consequences for the US economy of doing nothing could be severe." - Alan Greenspan.

"The world is set to jump off the top of a waterfall without knowing how deep the water is below." - Kenneth Rogoff, IMF (International Monetary Fund) Head of Economic Research.



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The Top Ten Reasons Why the US Economy Will Collapse:
(And by collapse, we mean go into a serious depression.)

#1. The United States government is currently running a budget deficit of $1.8 billion/day. Too much deficit will create a weaker American dollar and cripple the US economy.

#2. The US National Debt is $8 trillion+. It has to be paid back eventually by raising taxes.

#3. Oil prices is $60+ per crude barrel, there is a shortage of oil refineries and demand is growing due to more SUVs/trucks.

#4. China's economy is now bigger than the United States and China is now the centre of the global economy.

#5. China's trade exports out-matches the United States (ie. they can build cars/trucks/SUVs for half the price).

#6. English is no longer the international business language. Mandarin Chinese is now more important.

#7. Global warming is causing the US Wheat Belt to turn into desert.

#8. US universities aren't creating enough graduates to compete on the global market. Tuition is too expensive and there isn't enough university professors.

#9. The babyboomers are retiring, creating a shortage of skilled workers.

#10. George W. Bush failed Economics 101. He was too busy snorting cocaine when he was at Yale.



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"There's a 75% chance that the US will experience a currency crisis within five years." - Paul Volcker, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve.

"There's nobody home on economic policy in America right now. Its an accident waiting to happen." - Stephen Roach, Chief Economist, Morgan Stanley.



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More Reasons Why the US Economy Will Collapse:
#11. Automobile companies keep laying off unionized workers and moving their factories to China. The only car company building new plants and hiring workers is Japanese car-maker Toyota (which only hires non-union workers).

#12. The US government sold off its oil/gasoline reserves in 2002. It no longer has oil reserves in case of a national shortage.

#13. American taxpayers have an average of $48,000 in debt due to credit cards, mortgages, university debts, etc. If the economy goes sour and they lose their jobs, they may have to declare bankruptcy.

#14. The US dollar is notoriously easy to make counterfeit bills of. Its value of the US dollar is growing steadily lower. Thanks to modern computer printers, counterfeit is very easy to make.

#15. The US economy still has not recovered from 9/11.

#16. The US economy relies on the consumption of goods at a decadent rate. If something happens that throws the economy for a loop, it can very easily fall into a depression.

#17. The US capitalist systems assumes that the United States is at the top of the global economy. It no longer is. China is at the top.

#18. Over 60% of Americans are overweight and/or obese. The health problems resulting from their unhealthy diets combined with a shortage of doctors is causing the US healthcare system to collapse.

#19. The US government can't afford to pay for its soldiers serving in Iraq, Afghanistan, South Korea... as a result, they are scaling back pay, pension and benefits for their soldiers. Injured soldiers have a crippling effect on the US economy and drain precious money from US coffers and families of the soldiers suffer economic consequences because they have to pay the hospital bills.

#20. Foreign investors are no longer investing in American companies. They are investing in Chinese companies.



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The Remedy:

Small caps that are winners at present levels.

This list is from a friend with an outstanding background credentials and an investment record that anyone would want to have. These companies all have excellent fundamentals, low float and low priced with a good outlook for continued growth. The 3 that were his top picks for the next 6 months and longer are: HOM, DXPE & IPII. He also likes BTJ. I have mentioned HOM several times in the past weeks and it is the only one I presently own. I have done a thorough analysis and will own the others as soon as possible. Overall the record of all the stocks suggested in my blog are beating the market handily however the recent overall down market treated them as it did the rest of the market. My position on the market is to be long with a rating of 8 out of 10 ( 10 being highest.) Also there are 2 well respected blogs that should be followed, "seeking alpha" & "shaffers market blog"

My response to a question on investing in technology from a message board friend.

Petri? Time for tech?
by: petri37901 05/20/06 07:15 am
Msg: 4051 of 4053

Moon, With the past few week drop I may have gotten into a rut on antsy about Techs. Contrary to other longer termers here, I am not an advocate of buying low because I don't when we are there until it is over. So I rather be a nit picker and say buy after the bottom. The TA on that point is not the most reliable so one need to also look at the fundamentals to support that conclusion. Give up some of the up move and let the recovery get some legs before you leap. i.e. -PATIENCE ! My take is that the Techs and the QQQQ still look weak so it's too early to buy much. Remember our friend Bob stated one of his last signal was weak and not confirmed as he would like. So as I see it that signal to buy of over a week ago was badly wrong. Buyer beware, a half loaf is better than no loaf. I am not convinced to buy techs here unless one is looking years ahead and willing to take more losses. A " no brainer" is to nibble or average in a small amount. Not all wrong nor all right. I'm still a Maverick so this approach may not fit others.


Pete/petri37901

More on oil & gas from a pro. Part 2 of 2.

Sharp Money Manager - good read 2
by: moongodsuxs 05/19/06 02:52 pm


The much-warmer-than-normal winter left natural gas storage at levels not seen in recent memory. In fact, the worry now, with more than 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage, is that underground storage will fill by August and newly produced natural gas will have no place to go.

The problem is real.

Natural gas storage levels are 31% above last year's levels and 53% above the five-year storage average. Absent a hot summer and increased demand for natural gas to fuel power generation or another significant hurricane season to limit production, storage will remain an issue, and natural gas prices will likely drift close to the current $6 per mmbtu price.

However, you are beginning to see a modest increase in industrial demand, and lower prices will lead to a decision to run more natural gas generation vs. coal-fired plants. In addition, while I don't expect significant reduction in drilling activity, prices well below $6 could lead to a decision to slow exploration. If that happens, the decline rate suggests a quick response in overall natural gas production and, as a result, higher prices.

In short, summer could bring sloppiness in the natural gas markets, but any significant decline in prices that leads to a response in drilling activity would quickly show up in production data, leading to higher prices and more activity.

Simply, any natural gas price correction is likely to be short-lived.

The energy cycle remains intact, but understand that markets never travel in straight lines. Stick to your discipline, know your risk tolerance and do your homework. As always, patience and strategy are rewarded in difficult markets.

This time should be no different.

This was copied from Yahoo message board WGR. Pete
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Posted as a reply to: Msg 4037 by moongodsuxs
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More on O&g from a pro Part 1 of 2

Money Manager - good read 1
by: moongodsuxs 05/19/06 02:52 pm


With energy stocks struggling to catch a bid, many investors are wondering if this is the end of the oilfield cycle. Combined with the decline in both crude and especially natural gas, there appear to be some worrisome signs on the horizon for energy equities.

To say the stocks have not had a good week may be an understatement. Through early Friday morning, the energy complex -- as measured by the Philadelphia Oilfield Service Index (OSX) -- was down nearly 8% for the week and about 14% off the highs set in mid-May. Nobody can argue that such a sharp correction isn't painful.

However, recent history suggests such corrections in the oil patch are followed by meaningful rallies. In 2005, for example, the OSX saw two 15%-plus corrections that were followed by rallies to new highs. While past performance is no guarantee of the future, the recent volatility in the energy complex shouldn't be considered out of context with activity of the past several months.

However, there are some differences that deserve mention and some strategies that should make sense as investors position themselves in energy in the coming weeks.

First, technology and innovation will continue to be important in the oil patch. As exploration becomes more complex and new horizons are considered, companies with new technologies will continue to be at the forefront.

One name discussed in these pages before is FMC Technologies (FTI:NYSE) . The company posted solid results for the quarter and increased guidance. At the recent offshore-technologies conference in Houston, the company was awarded a "best in show" award for its new subsea processing technology. It will go commercial next year, and the technology has the potential to reduce costs of subsea production and ultimately increase recovery from offshore fields. Once proven, oilfield experts put the potential market in the billions of dollars of the next decade, with little current competition.

Also on the technology front is National Oilwell Varco (NOV:NYSE) , the leading manufacturer of rigs and rig components. Earlier this month, the company launched a new rig prototype, the Rapid Rig, that is a quick-mobilization rig that can be operated by a crew of three. Not only does the rig reduce the labor needed to drill mid-depth wells (up to 11,000 feet), but it also automates several rig operations. Combined with its other rig-construction and services business, the company's backlog should continue to support performance well into 2007.

Other companies that have a technological edge include Halliburton (HAL:NYSE) , Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE) and Weatherford (WFT:NYSE) .

Another theme of interest is the need for new infrastructure.

From refineries to pipelines, the need for additional infrastructure to support continued expansion into new basins will keep many companies busy. Companies like Halliburton's Kellogg, Brown & Root division, McDermott (MDR:NYSE) , Fluor (FLR:NYSE) , Foster Wheeler (FWLT:Nasdaq) , Jacobs Engineering (JEC:NYSE) and Willbros Group (WG:NYSE) all should continue to see solid business opportunities.
The Gas Challenge
One difference between today and 2005 is the price and short-term fundamental outlook for natural gas. While very little has changed in the long-term natural gas picture -- production is still challenged, the average well-production decline rate remains north of 30% and the cost of production continues to inch higher -- the short-term supply picture is not bullish.

See part 2 :copied from Yahoo WGR message board

"Everyone" was suggesting to buy the oil & gas stocks- Not so wise now?.

percentage declines in energy stocks
by: moongodsuxs 05/19/06 07:40 am
Msg: 4001 of 4051

here are the percentage declines of the 50 most liquid energy sector stocks from their 52-week highs (as a rough proxy for their loss in the past 6 trading days):

1. FST Forest Oil Corporation -41.12
2. HW Headwaters Incorporated -36.90
3. KWK Quicksilver Resources Inc -33.97
4. MEE Massey Energy Company -31.96
5. SUN Sunoco, Inc. -31.48
6. ANR Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. -31.41
7. EPL Energy Partners, Ltd. -31.32
8. SGY Stone Energy Corporation -31.31
9. PXD Pioneer Natural Resources -29.57
10. THX The Houston Exploration -29.34
11. EOG EOG Resources, Inc. -28.59
12. SWN Southwestern Energy Company -28.55
13. HAWK Petrohawk Energy Corporation -28.49
14. CHK Chesapeake Energy Corporation -26.79
15. PXP Plains Exploration & Production Company -26.70
16. FDG Fording Canadian Coal Trust (USA) -25.89
17. THE TODCO -24.92
18. ECA EnCana Corporation (USA) -24.76
19. PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. -24.24
20. PPP Pogo Producing Company -23.93
21. ATW Atwood Oceanics, Inc. -23.90
22. TLM Talisman Energy Inc. (USA) -22.45
23. CNQ Canadian Natural Resource Ltd (USA) -21.84
24. BTU Peabody Energy Corporation -21.35
25. DVN Devon Energy Corporation -21.19
26. NFX Newfield Exploration Co. -21.06
27. BJS BJ Services Company -21.03
28. XTO XTO Energy Inc. -21.02
29. GRP Grant Prideco, Inc. -20.73
30. TDW Tidewater Inc. -20.66
31. DRQ Dril-Quip, Inc. -20.46
32. NE Noble Corporation -20.33
33. SM St. Mary Land & Exploration Co. -20.25
34. VTS Veritas DGC Inc. -20.13
35. RDC Rowan Companies, Inc. -20.04
36. NOV National-Oilwell Varco Inc. -19.95
37. FCL Foundation Coal Holdings, Inc. -19.86
38. HELX Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc. -19.84
39. UPL Ultra Petroleum Corp. -19.41
40. HYDL Hydril Company -19.30
41. PCZ Petro-Canada (USA) -18.99
42. WLL Whiting Petroleum Corporation -18.62
43. RRC Range Resources Corp. -18.55
44. COG Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation -18.44
45. OIS Oil States International, Inc. -18.24
46. DNR Denbury Resources Inc. -18.17
47. XEC Cimarex Energy Co. -17.85
48. APA Apache Corporation -17.81
49. ESV ENSCO International Incorporated -17.77
50. MUR Murphy Oil Corp. -17.75


This was copied from the Yahoo WGR message board. Pete

This is my Yahoo message board posting of 05/14/06.

When a blogger is hot, he's H O T !
by: petri37901 05/14/06 07:21 am
Msg: 3801 of 4015

I've been blogging for a month with the commitment to post a list of positive stocks and to enter new titles frequently. This has been a time consuming start-up effort with over 24 titles containing 17 individual stocks that were my favorites. I had about 25 total comments and no spammers or slammers. Folks from this board are the primary blog commenter's- Thanks. Most important is the monthly score card - an average 18% gain for the 17 stocks. I may not have mentioned all stocks a full month ago. No, I do not own most of them but my personal account beat the favorite list in blog > market101+ <. I regret to say that CHK, VLO & COP were on my list but none were gainers. I did the blogging to improve my investing and to have fun while attempting to exchange information. Some of the worst investors have short term hot streaks and this was my lucky streak. I have not yet reached my blogging goals for information exchange with responders- this takes a lot of smarts, effort and time ! I will need to use some discretion as I post the above info to my few "new" blog followers?? Lot of doubters in this world. I intend to put much less time in blogging as I attempt to becoming a better student of investing by being a better listener rather than a preacher. The one day wonder- Petri/Pete


PS. Reminder, the original message board posting was 05/14/06.

This was posted by myself on message board with ambiguities and persons names removed for this blog.

Petri " GUESS list " for 6 & 12 mo.
by: petri37901 01/07/06 05:33 am
Msg: 1710 of 4013

{Reader beware this is a Maverick's "guess list", not a researched recommendation!! There are plenty of disclaimers, some not mentioned, like who is the poster? I owned all of these recently and own about 1/2 of them now. The list without ranking is for 12 & 6 month target and each should have your targets for selling when U had enough? Hedge your bets!! This list is not intended to be diversified or emphasize my favorite sectors- just what my "present" guesses are. A review of the universe of stocks or any elaborate "sure best of breed" for '06 is not what this is intended to be. > 12month: goog, shfl, penn, vlo, chk, sndk, wmt or low ?, igt,& flir. For the 6 month target: hom, eng, ifo, mchx, wpcs, amd, & xwg. I have not considered Internationals but like Chinese & India as AOB and couple of Chinese unnamed Internets. Comments: LOW is favored over WMT if home building holds up. Chasing momo stocks is dangerous as GOOG is running wild but should be OK around 450 if one has happy hour money & courage. The list other than GOOG is not deliberately intended to be speculative but I am not a chicken. To me, risks & rewards is the name of the investing game so have patience and doubts. I have shied away here from O&G as this is done very well by others. } The above bracketed posting in early 2006 should give one a chance to evaluate the bloggers opinion on stock picking. At present with the DOW about 400 to 450 points I'm digging to my old Yahoo message board postings to get my own bearing. Posting was 1/7/06 Pete/Petri

Is it too late to sell ?

(Message is as I posted on Yahoo WGR board for a lot of O&G folks. They loive their sector even though it has taken a beating.)

The real question is- who is the seller and what do they have to sell. Thus it's similar to giving an answer to an undefined situation or a lot of something about nothing definitive. The consensus or typical response might be IT'S TOO LATE to sell ! My take might be to stay with old fashion fundamentals that you can live with or you get what you paid for. Or simply each to their own. YES, you can get many answers. But I have no meaningful answer. There is no meaningful consensus or not much typical or average in the market nor is there an average investor. CHK or COP (O&G favorites) might be great for some but less much less likely to be great for a short termer or a poor antsy investor. So rather than suggesting something specific or beneficial to someone you don't understand and a market that I don't understand- it's best for me to say nothing. Butfor myself it is tooo late to sell as in my case my aggressive portfolio is down less than 10%. My portfolio is relatively few stocks and can be determined from my previous blogs.

HOM- Home Solutions of America is on this blog's favorite list. HOM was up 12% today !

Outstanding Q report today. It was also one of the best performers this past 1 month, even prior to today's gain. Your questions about making money from the blog's favorite list are welcome. Prompt responses will be made to any questions.

Today I bought AOB Chinese Amercian Bioengineering - Why and where?

The DOW made a Fabinacci retracement at 14440. This is a bullish TA signal indicating the 270 point drop has reversed. AOB has a outstanding Q report in both top & bottom line. ( Revenue & Earnings) Some great acquisitions assure future potential. The Co. CEO gave positive guidance. I like the Co. I bought at 5.95 & 6.00, the stock hit a high of 6.28. See other articles about AOB in this blog. Appreciate the increasing questions and comments.

Is Monday 5/15 the time to go long the market or to sell ?

I have no new formula to guide you, no guarantees- but folks are nervous. The easy solution is to hedge, to average in or out to suit your instinct. Protecting your capital is essential. We are seldom a 100% right or wrong so we need not make major commitments in either direction. Some like to use leap options as they are very long term options that cost a fraction of the share cost. Others like to have more cash to apply when more certainty returns. One need not be very creative to find ways to hedge in the stock market or in other investing venues. Some will want to wait for the Presidents Monday night speech on immigration. The solution to the immigration problem will not be resolved Monday night. No doubt that the investors have a high degree of uncertainty and this will add to more volatility in the days ahead. There has not been a burst of the investment bubble, we have the same wars as last week, but there can be an inflection or tipping point if we add more uncertainty to the existing list. Such sayings as "each to their own" or "go with the flow " etc etc have little meaning if we are so divided as to where we are or where we are going! Sounds like being lost? Is this an opportunity for the wise to make profits? What are your comments for investing at this time? I.

market101+ , 1 month scorecard for 17 favorite stocks. When your hot your hot.

During the past month there were 17 individual "favorite stocks" posted. These are: ZENX, HOM, TGC, VLO, CHK, PENN, IGT SHFL, COP, TM, AOB, GIGM, IFO, CRS, ATI, DXPE & GLW. The AVERAGE was a whopping 21% gain. For the same 1 month the DOW gained 2% and the NASDAQ lost 4%. The worst group was oil & gas stocks which were near zero change. The best category was the smaller cap stocks with the biggest gainers of over 30% being ZENX, HOM, TGC, GIGM, IFO, & DXPE. ALL STOCKS WERE NOT MENTIONED THE SAME TIME but since most were mostly about a month ago, a one month period was used. Most of us have a lucky streak and mine is now as my personal portfolio of a few of the above stocks gained over 21% . Since I am not making stock recommendations I do not intend to expend the added effort to keep a precise portfolio performance record. A big part of ones portfolio success is selling at a profitable time and this has not been part of my blog goal or reporting. My goal, the exchange of investment ideas, is just beginning to get some traction. I would be glad to further clarify any questions. Any of your thoughts or questions are appreciated- thank you.

GIGM Gigamedia, AOB American Oriental Bioengineering, IFO Ifosonic are winners NOW !

AS soon as the overall market goes up a bit, these are stocks that will continue to have price momentum. GIGM is an internet gaming co. AOB is a Chinese medicinal herb Co in China, IFO is a growing wireless distributor. All have excellent financial stats and potential that will result in continued price momentum. Please make any comments below.

Is Buy LOW & sell High misunderstood ?- YES !!

If one knew when the top and bottom would absolutely reverse to a substantial amount, all would be easy and thus all investors should be rich. It is said ( Buffet?) that fools go where winners leave. With the market down 140 and 100 (today) in the last 2 days, are we at the bottom ?- Who knows now ?- NOBODY. Yet there are some common rules that help one recognize & take advantage of tops & bottoms. The most consistent is that tops occur with blow out volume during a run-up. But what about the present short term 220 point drop -is it a a "bottom." ? My take is that bottoms occur when most are done selling and the volume will be low. ( even though there is plenty of money around looking for a winner.) An old statistical rule/way of determining this is that the swing need to correct about 1/3 before the reversal is likely sustainable. Now my math is good so if this theory works as it has for centuries. (/ Fibonacci?) .The DOW at 1:15 PM EST is at ~ 11400 or down 240. The magic number ( on the DOW) needed before an up recovery is confirmed is about 11470 to 11490. I used about + & - 10 DOW points from the actual # to remind one that precise numbers are not to be taken as the gospel. All prognosticators like to use disclaimers which would be: major crisis or changes in the rule of sanity. The essence of the above is to give up trying to pick the bottoms or tops and let the reversal have some momentum to confirm the potential reversal. Ones time frame for investing come into play in the above since in the long run we are all dead. Or over decades the markets as inflation are going up. We are in a many year secular BULL market so go with the flow- that will be up.

More stats on "Pete's Picks" from previous weeks .

Not mentioned yesterday are some other good stock winners. To get a quick momentum read I used 1 and 3 month time frames. Results are: CRS= 48 & 30%, ATI= + 30 & 17%, DXPE= + 120% & 40%. Close behind are IFO= + 4 & 23%, GLW= +15 & 5%. All are for 3 and 1 month and are still looking favorable at present. With some overall market momentum one should find the fundamentals of most to be to their liking IE. BUY candidates. You are welcome to add your comments or favorite stocks. If you wish more details on the "Petri Picks comment below and I will oblige. Thank you. Pete

Stocks previously posted by me as "Pete's Picks" are beating the market.

I now have little time for statistics on all my picks but will do so in due time. My jury duty is not forgiving. Some stocks that have beaten the market by a lot in the "Large stock" group are: TM, Toyota Motor, which has surpassed Chrysler in sales & is getting big in China. SHFL, Shuffle Master, and IGT, International Gaming, are both monopolies in casino equipment manufacturing. Some of the previous small capitalization "Pete Picks" that have skyrocket in price are GIGM, Giga Media in internet gaming, expanding product and penetrating the China market; ZENX, Zenex International is in construction and has unbelievable growth and expanding product ; HOM(name missing) is a profitable storm remedial Co. ; TGC, Tangasco Inc. a small oil & gas exploration and producer that is zooming into profits. My overall list is doing wonders with anything in O&G , Precious Metals or Commodities a near automatic winner. Yes, my portfolio is ahead over 50% YTD! Happy Hour ! I am averaging out(selling) a small % and usually wishing I hadn't sold. I do not own all that are on the "PETE Pick" list because of limited cash. I remain 90% positive on the overall market and am fully invested. If I need cash, the low commissions at a fraction of a %, make selling to get cash easily available- it's just sweating another transaction decision. Gold at $667 and Silver at $14.24/ oz. are at 25 year highs. The Bolivia move to take over private O&G Cos along with Venezuela threatening to do the same is more than enough to support energy prices. there is a built in premium for Iraq & Iran WAR threats. Over 3$ gas keeps the energy hype at a high level. No doubt that with my limited time (again -jury duty) I will be watching my portfolio ahead of posting here. The number of comments to my blog are SLOWLY growing but more would help readers get a balanced view. I still invite anyone to make specific inquiries or add their comments below. Thanks. by- Pete the poster of "Pete's Picks"

May Day with immigrants marching around and gas prices marching up- So?

The bungling of both of the above issues will cause uncertainty in the market. The Sec. of the Dept. of Energy, Bodman, admitted being uncertain about the future of gas. Congress, the administration, & media pundits are gyrating around the immigrant problem. Now the words; illegal , terrorists, gougers & pandering are being directed against more people in the world. We are not together in the US. In addition my being MARCHED to jury duty does not leave me willing to blog much about how these matters will play out in the market's. I'm "locked down" for a while but the show will go on and the politicians will go after our votes. We shall survive? Peace until another time. by " Maverick Pete"