Anyone reading?

Am about to give up this blog unless get some reader's comments- Am I wasting my time? Let me know.

My recent interest is small Chinese energy stocks

I haven't posted on my blog for some time as I have been "busy" on many other sites. My recent primary favorites are: CNEH an oil exploration and producer, CHNG and SNEN both natural gas and related products. Of the latter 2 CHNG is the more mature company and has the greatest price appreciation. I am interested in a dialogue for any or all 3 of the above. I have extensive historical and current fundamentals to post depending on the interest shown by other investors. The past performance and the outlook to continue their price surge is exceptional. Questions will be answered promptly. I have articles published by Seeking Alpha on these stocks. One can enter the name max petrisek in the question search button on the SA site. . Thanks for comments or questions. pete/max

Last month scorecard for my favorite list of 17 stocks- Not good

The previous month I raved about my good selection of stocks. I beat the averages. This past month was a reversal of poorer performance than the overall market. All but one stock was down. So it is true that what goes up the most goes down the most in a down market. The 4 oil & gas companies were better (-6%) than the others. My "favorite" group performed about as poorly as Jim Cramer's recommendations. I don't think I have found the golden grail for investing. I intend to do little blogging as it is impractical to keep up with the vast amount of investing information and also few comments/exchanges from readers. No doubt I would not be able to compete with top bloggers as Seeking Java which I highly recommend. For me it's old investors or bloggers just fade away. There is more productive things for me to do with the precious time given to human beings.

Too soon old & too late smart .

The problem of investing.

From a message board- not a world class media but a view from the other side ( of what?)- Hmmm?

American Economic Collapse Not Far Away


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Even More Reasons Why the US Economy Will Collapse:
#21. Five years of drought and Global Warming has caused many farmers in the American mid-west to declare bankrupty. The US is facing a possible food shortage if current drought trends continue. People aren't building enough green houses to grow food.

#22. Rising costs of airplane flights are stifling business trips by companies seeking to do business.

#23. Global Warming is causing record hurricanes, tropical storms, floods and ecological disasters are destroying homes & businesses in the South-Eastern United States. The storms also prevent oil rigs from drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, causing an oil shortage.

#24. We're already in a recession. A depression is not far away.

#25. The White House is being complacent about the US economy and isn't doing a thing to prevent a depression.

According to chief economists, the American economy is so close to collapse its getting scary. But don't take my word for it, see what people in authority have been saying about the US economy:
"The consequences for the US economy of doing nothing could be severe." - Alan Greenspan.

"The world is set to jump off the top of a waterfall without knowing how deep the water is below." - Kenneth Rogoff, IMF (International Monetary Fund) Head of Economic Research.



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The Top Ten Reasons Why the US Economy Will Collapse:
(And by collapse, we mean go into a serious depression.)

#1. The United States government is currently running a budget deficit of $1.8 billion/day. Too much deficit will create a weaker American dollar and cripple the US economy.

#2. The US National Debt is $8 trillion+. It has to be paid back eventually by raising taxes.

#3. Oil prices is $60+ per crude barrel, there is a shortage of oil refineries and demand is growing due to more SUVs/trucks.

#4. China's economy is now bigger than the United States and China is now the centre of the global economy.

#5. China's trade exports out-matches the United States (ie. they can build cars/trucks/SUVs for half the price).

#6. English is no longer the international business language. Mandarin Chinese is now more important.

#7. Global warming is causing the US Wheat Belt to turn into desert.

#8. US universities aren't creating enough graduates to compete on the global market. Tuition is too expensive and there isn't enough university professors.

#9. The babyboomers are retiring, creating a shortage of skilled workers.

#10. George W. Bush failed Economics 101. He was too busy snorting cocaine when he was at Yale.



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"There's a 75% chance that the US will experience a currency crisis within five years." - Paul Volcker, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve.

"There's nobody home on economic policy in America right now. Its an accident waiting to happen." - Stephen Roach, Chief Economist, Morgan Stanley.



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More Reasons Why the US Economy Will Collapse:
#11. Automobile companies keep laying off unionized workers and moving their factories to China. The only car company building new plants and hiring workers is Japanese car-maker Toyota (which only hires non-union workers).

#12. The US government sold off its oil/gasoline reserves in 2002. It no longer has oil reserves in case of a national shortage.

#13. American taxpayers have an average of $48,000 in debt due to credit cards, mortgages, university debts, etc. If the economy goes sour and they lose their jobs, they may have to declare bankruptcy.

#14. The US dollar is notoriously easy to make counterfeit bills of. Its value of the US dollar is growing steadily lower. Thanks to modern computer printers, counterfeit is very easy to make.

#15. The US economy still has not recovered from 9/11.

#16. The US economy relies on the consumption of goods at a decadent rate. If something happens that throws the economy for a loop, it can very easily fall into a depression.

#17. The US capitalist systems assumes that the United States is at the top of the global economy. It no longer is. China is at the top.

#18. Over 60% of Americans are overweight and/or obese. The health problems resulting from their unhealthy diets combined with a shortage of doctors is causing the US healthcare system to collapse.

#19. The US government can't afford to pay for its soldiers serving in Iraq, Afghanistan, South Korea... as a result, they are scaling back pay, pension and benefits for their soldiers. Injured soldiers have a crippling effect on the US economy and drain precious money from US coffers and families of the soldiers suffer economic consequences because they have to pay the hospital bills.

#20. Foreign investors are no longer investing in American companies. They are investing in Chinese companies.



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The Remedy:

Small caps that are winners at present levels.

This list is from a friend with an outstanding background credentials and an investment record that anyone would want to have. These companies all have excellent fundamentals, low float and low priced with a good outlook for continued growth. The 3 that were his top picks for the next 6 months and longer are: HOM, DXPE & IPII. He also likes BTJ. I have mentioned HOM several times in the past weeks and it is the only one I presently own. I have done a thorough analysis and will own the others as soon as possible. Overall the record of all the stocks suggested in my blog are beating the market handily however the recent overall down market treated them as it did the rest of the market. My position on the market is to be long with a rating of 8 out of 10 ( 10 being highest.) Also there are 2 well respected blogs that should be followed, "seeking alpha" & "shaffers market blog"

My response to a question on investing in technology from a message board friend.

Petri? Time for tech?
by: petri37901 05/20/06 07:15 am
Msg: 4051 of 4053

Moon, With the past few week drop I may have gotten into a rut on antsy about Techs. Contrary to other longer termers here, I am not an advocate of buying low because I don't when we are there until it is over. So I rather be a nit picker and say buy after the bottom. The TA on that point is not the most reliable so one need to also look at the fundamentals to support that conclusion. Give up some of the up move and let the recovery get some legs before you leap. i.e. -PATIENCE ! My take is that the Techs and the QQQQ still look weak so it's too early to buy much. Remember our friend Bob stated one of his last signal was weak and not confirmed as he would like. So as I see it that signal to buy of over a week ago was badly wrong. Buyer beware, a half loaf is better than no loaf. I am not convinced to buy techs here unless one is looking years ahead and willing to take more losses. A " no brainer" is to nibble or average in a small amount. Not all wrong nor all right. I'm still a Maverick so this approach may not fit others.


Pete/petri37901

More on oil & gas from a pro. Part 2 of 2.

Sharp Money Manager - good read 2
by: moongodsuxs 05/19/06 02:52 pm


The much-warmer-than-normal winter left natural gas storage at levels not seen in recent memory. In fact, the worry now, with more than 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage, is that underground storage will fill by August and newly produced natural gas will have no place to go.

The problem is real.

Natural gas storage levels are 31% above last year's levels and 53% above the five-year storage average. Absent a hot summer and increased demand for natural gas to fuel power generation or another significant hurricane season to limit production, storage will remain an issue, and natural gas prices will likely drift close to the current $6 per mmbtu price.

However, you are beginning to see a modest increase in industrial demand, and lower prices will lead to a decision to run more natural gas generation vs. coal-fired plants. In addition, while I don't expect significant reduction in drilling activity, prices well below $6 could lead to a decision to slow exploration. If that happens, the decline rate suggests a quick response in overall natural gas production and, as a result, higher prices.

In short, summer could bring sloppiness in the natural gas markets, but any significant decline in prices that leads to a response in drilling activity would quickly show up in production data, leading to higher prices and more activity.

Simply, any natural gas price correction is likely to be short-lived.

The energy cycle remains intact, but understand that markets never travel in straight lines. Stick to your discipline, know your risk tolerance and do your homework. As always, patience and strategy are rewarded in difficult markets.

This time should be no different.

This was copied from Yahoo message board WGR. Pete
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Posted as a reply to: Msg 4037 by moongodsuxs
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More on O&g from a pro Part 1 of 2

Money Manager - good read 1
by: moongodsuxs 05/19/06 02:52 pm


With energy stocks struggling to catch a bid, many investors are wondering if this is the end of the oilfield cycle. Combined with the decline in both crude and especially natural gas, there appear to be some worrisome signs on the horizon for energy equities.

To say the stocks have not had a good week may be an understatement. Through early Friday morning, the energy complex -- as measured by the Philadelphia Oilfield Service Index (OSX) -- was down nearly 8% for the week and about 14% off the highs set in mid-May. Nobody can argue that such a sharp correction isn't painful.

However, recent history suggests such corrections in the oil patch are followed by meaningful rallies. In 2005, for example, the OSX saw two 15%-plus corrections that were followed by rallies to new highs. While past performance is no guarantee of the future, the recent volatility in the energy complex shouldn't be considered out of context with activity of the past several months.

However, there are some differences that deserve mention and some strategies that should make sense as investors position themselves in energy in the coming weeks.

First, technology and innovation will continue to be important in the oil patch. As exploration becomes more complex and new horizons are considered, companies with new technologies will continue to be at the forefront.

One name discussed in these pages before is FMC Technologies (FTI:NYSE) . The company posted solid results for the quarter and increased guidance. At the recent offshore-technologies conference in Houston, the company was awarded a "best in show" award for its new subsea processing technology. It will go commercial next year, and the technology has the potential to reduce costs of subsea production and ultimately increase recovery from offshore fields. Once proven, oilfield experts put the potential market in the billions of dollars of the next decade, with little current competition.

Also on the technology front is National Oilwell Varco (NOV:NYSE) , the leading manufacturer of rigs and rig components. Earlier this month, the company launched a new rig prototype, the Rapid Rig, that is a quick-mobilization rig that can be operated by a crew of three. Not only does the rig reduce the labor needed to drill mid-depth wells (up to 11,000 feet), but it also automates several rig operations. Combined with its other rig-construction and services business, the company's backlog should continue to support performance well into 2007.

Other companies that have a technological edge include Halliburton (HAL:NYSE) , Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE) and Weatherford (WFT:NYSE) .

Another theme of interest is the need for new infrastructure.

From refineries to pipelines, the need for additional infrastructure to support continued expansion into new basins will keep many companies busy. Companies like Halliburton's Kellogg, Brown & Root division, McDermott (MDR:NYSE) , Fluor (FLR:NYSE) , Foster Wheeler (FWLT:Nasdaq) , Jacobs Engineering (JEC:NYSE) and Willbros Group (WG:NYSE) all should continue to see solid business opportunities.
The Gas Challenge
One difference between today and 2005 is the price and short-term fundamental outlook for natural gas. While very little has changed in the long-term natural gas picture -- production is still challenged, the average well-production decline rate remains north of 30% and the cost of production continues to inch higher -- the short-term supply picture is not bullish.

See part 2 :copied from Yahoo WGR message board

"Everyone" was suggesting to buy the oil & gas stocks- Not so wise now?.

percentage declines in energy stocks
by: moongodsuxs 05/19/06 07:40 am
Msg: 4001 of 4051

here are the percentage declines of the 50 most liquid energy sector stocks from their 52-week highs (as a rough proxy for their loss in the past 6 trading days):

1. FST Forest Oil Corporation -41.12
2. HW Headwaters Incorporated -36.90
3. KWK Quicksilver Resources Inc -33.97
4. MEE Massey Energy Company -31.96
5. SUN Sunoco, Inc. -31.48
6. ANR Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. -31.41
7. EPL Energy Partners, Ltd. -31.32
8. SGY Stone Energy Corporation -31.31
9. PXD Pioneer Natural Resources -29.57
10. THX The Houston Exploration -29.34
11. EOG EOG Resources, Inc. -28.59
12. SWN Southwestern Energy Company -28.55
13. HAWK Petrohawk Energy Corporation -28.49
14. CHK Chesapeake Energy Corporation -26.79
15. PXP Plains Exploration & Production Company -26.70
16. FDG Fording Canadian Coal Trust (USA) -25.89
17. THE TODCO -24.92
18. ECA EnCana Corporation (USA) -24.76
19. PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. -24.24
20. PPP Pogo Producing Company -23.93
21. ATW Atwood Oceanics, Inc. -23.90
22. TLM Talisman Energy Inc. (USA) -22.45
23. CNQ Canadian Natural Resource Ltd (USA) -21.84
24. BTU Peabody Energy Corporation -21.35
25. DVN Devon Energy Corporation -21.19
26. NFX Newfield Exploration Co. -21.06
27. BJS BJ Services Company -21.03
28. XTO XTO Energy Inc. -21.02
29. GRP Grant Prideco, Inc. -20.73
30. TDW Tidewater Inc. -20.66
31. DRQ Dril-Quip, Inc. -20.46
32. NE Noble Corporation -20.33
33. SM St. Mary Land & Exploration Co. -20.25
34. VTS Veritas DGC Inc. -20.13
35. RDC Rowan Companies, Inc. -20.04
36. NOV National-Oilwell Varco Inc. -19.95
37. FCL Foundation Coal Holdings, Inc. -19.86
38. HELX Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc. -19.84
39. UPL Ultra Petroleum Corp. -19.41
40. HYDL Hydril Company -19.30
41. PCZ Petro-Canada (USA) -18.99
42. WLL Whiting Petroleum Corporation -18.62
43. RRC Range Resources Corp. -18.55
44. COG Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation -18.44
45. OIS Oil States International, Inc. -18.24
46. DNR Denbury Resources Inc. -18.17
47. XEC Cimarex Energy Co. -17.85
48. APA Apache Corporation -17.81
49. ESV ENSCO International Incorporated -17.77
50. MUR Murphy Oil Corp. -17.75


This was copied from the Yahoo WGR message board. Pete